Cyclone Risk and Socioeconomic Vulnerability in Indian Coastal Districts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66050/an82aj38Keywords:
tropical cyclone, socioeconomic vulnerability, coastal vulnerability, risk management, natural hazard, coastal districts, IndiaAbstract
Frequent exposure to natural hazards strips people of assets, breaks down physical infrastructure, and snips livelihood options. These have long-run consequences, including reduced human capital in affected populations through lower education and health standards and reduced income levels. Existing socioeconomic vulnerability compounds the impact of such disasters and traps people in a low level of human development across generations. Understanding the extent and severity of these vulnerabilities enables preventive and adaptive policy actions. Coastal India, with 251 million people, is exposed to one-tenth of the world's tropical cyclones and faces several such disasters each year. Cyclone risk management is therefore an emergent need for the region. This paper examines the trends in cyclone exposure, its interaction with development indicators, and how it overlaps existing socioeconomic weaknesses in the 99 coastal districts of India. A spatiotemporal approach is adopted, in which ANOVA, pooled regression, and spatial regression models are used across two time points of data, 2011 and 2023, to understand the association between cyclone exposure and development. Separate indices of cyclone exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability are constructed using PCA and then combined to yield a Coastal Vulnerability Index. Results indicate increasing exposure to cyclones but diminishing socioeconomic vulnerability. Coastal Vulnerability Index shows a mixed trend, with the distribution bulging at two ends and thinning in the middle. One standard deviation increase in cyclone exposure is associated with a 1 percentage point decrease in Literacy, a 2 per thousand increase in infant mortality, a 1.4 percentage point increase in the poverty head count ratio, and a 5 percent lower consumption level. Coastal vulnerability has increased for 20 districts during 2011-23, and the number of districts in the Extremely High vulnerability category has increased from 18 to 21, highlighting intensifying compound risks. The study identifies three sets of districts with distinct exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability mixes and suggests that cyclone risk management policy be grounded in the specific type of district. It bridges existing gaps by enabling targeted and evidence-based coastal resilience planning and would help in adopting appropriate and distinct policies for climate adaptation, disaster risk management planning, and resilient regional development.
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