International Journal of Disaster Risk Management
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) is a double-blind peer-reviewed, open-access international journal published twice a year, dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary research and practice in disaster and hazard studies, policy, and management. IJDRM publishes contributions across the full disaster risk management cycle—prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery—covering natural hazards, technological/man-made hazards, complex emergencies, and global crises. For detailed information, please consult the relevant sections of our website: About (About the Journal; Aims and Scope; Editor-in-Chief; Editorial Board; Editorial Independence and Non-Interference; Abstracting and Indexing Information; Publisher; Brochure; Contact; Editorial Masthead), Policies (Publication Ethics and Malpractice Statement; Archiving Policy; Open Access Policy; Copyright and Licensing Policy; Repository Policy; Peer Review Policy; Plagiarism Policy and Preprints; Retraction Policy; View Profile; Privacy Statement), For Authors (Authorship; Author Instructions; Manuscript Preparation; Template for Authors; Publication Model: Continuous (Rolling) Publication; Publication Fees; Discount Policy—APC Discounts, Vouchers, Waivers; Revenue Sources; Conflicts of Interest; Submissions), and For Reviewers (Reviewer Instructions; Reviewer Acknowledgements; Reviewers’ Responsibilities; Reviewers Certificates/Voucher).
Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management (SPS-DRM), Belgrade
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Leveraging Social Media and Mobile Technology for Disaster Communication in Nigeria
Section: Articles Keywords: social media, mobile technology, disaster communication, communicationNigeria, emergency management, digital infrastructure, early warning systems The qualitative and literature-based research presented here examines how Nigeria utilized social media and mobile phones for disaster communication between 2020 and 2025. To this end, it assesses the literature through a systematic review and narrative synthesis, as well as peer-reviewed articles, institutional reports, and policy documents. The research explores the evolving digital ecosystem of emergency management in Nigeria. The study's results indicate that the adoption of social media in disaster management in Africa has not yet reached the levels seen in countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia in terms of initial uptake and the mainstreaming of the technology into disaster management processes. Even though as of January 2025, Nigeria has 107 million internet users (45.4% penetration rate) and 38.7 million active social media users (16.4% of the population) (Nyambo et al., 2024; Agbeyangi et al., 2024), significant challenges are still in place, such as a lack of infrastructure, rising misinformation, a low level of digital literacy, and distrust. One of the significant contributions highlighted by the study was that social media influencers, such as @Aproko_doctor, who had engagement rates comparable to the Nigerian Center for Disease Control but far greater interaction metrics, were the most public interactive during the 2020 Lagos lockdown for COVID-19 compared to official health authorities while still community leaders were the most preferred for flood risk communication (Akingbade, 2021; Marsh et al., 2024). The research examines the use of various platforms, the methods of disseminating early warnings, and the dual nature of digital technologies in Nigeria’s disaster communication scene, where they act as both facilitators and barriers. Among other things, the main recommendations include the need for integrated digital-traditional communication systems, digital literacy programs with improved outreach, and stronger public-private partnerships to establish an efficient, sustainable disaster communication infrastructure.
Copyright (c) 2026 Daniel Yamah https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Tracing Forty Years of Research on the Bhopal Gas Tragedy: Trends, Themes, and Future Directions
Section: Articles Keywords: Bhopal gas tragedy, bibliometric analysis, industrial disaster, public health, research trends The Bhopal Gas Tragedy stands as a defining moment in the history of industrial disasters, prompting ongoing global discourse on public health, environmental safety, and corporate accountability. This study aims to systematically map and evaluate the scholarly landscape of the Bhopal Gas Tragedy over 40 years (1984–2024), offering a longitudinal perspective on the evolution, diffusion, and thematic transformation of research in this critical area. A total of 301 documents were analyzed, revealing fluctuating yet enduring scholarly engagement, with notable publication peaks corresponding to key anniversaries of the Bhopal Gas Tragedy. The findings show a clear thematic evolution from early technical and toxicological investigations focused on chemical causes and health effects to more holistic perspectives encompassing industrial safety, environmental sustainability, and disaster governance. In recent years, research has increasingly integrated themes of public health, psychosocial resilience, and environmental justice, reflecting a shift from reactive crisis response to preventive and adaptive frameworks. Factorial analysis further identified three dominant thematic clusters: institutional and technical management of the disaster, long-term health and environmental outcomes, and occupational or exposure-related risks. The bibliometric insights derived from this study advance understanding of industrial disasters by illustrating how Bhopal-related research has transitioned from immediate impact analyses to broader explorations of systemic governance and resilience. The significant implication of this work is the highlighting of the growing incorporation of environmental regulation, community preparedness, and psychosocial recovery into disaster management frameworks. This evidence-based synthesis clarifies the field's intellectual structure. It provides actionable guidance for policymakers and safety professionals, emphasizing the need for stronger preventive strategies, inter-agency collaboration, and resilience-building initiatives in industrial risk governance.
Copyright (c) 2026 Adarsh Thankappan, Haneena Sulthana Kuzhichalil Ponnambath (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Beyond the Original BRIC Model: Gaps, Limitations, and Adaptation of Community Resilience Indicators for Local Contexts
Section: Articles Keywords: community resilience, BRIC method, DROP framework, resilience indicators, adaptation of the BRIC method, resilience measurement methodology This paper reviews the development and adaptations of the BRIC (Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) method for measuring local community resilience to disasters, grounded in the DROP (Disaster Resilience of Place) theoretical framework. The point of departure is the analysis of the DROP framework, which defines resilience as a dynamic process conditioned by pre-existing social, economic, institutional, and infrastructural conditions, as well as their interaction with natural systems. The first part of the paper discusses the theoretical value of this framework, as well as the practical challenges of its application arising from the limited availability of reliable data and the lack of standardized methodological approaches. The second part of the paper presents a detailed analysis of the development of resilience dimensions in contemporary literature, including socio-demographic structure, well-being and social capital, economic stability, institutional capacities, infrastructure, geographical and spatial characteristics, cooperation, and risk analysis. Through a comparative approach, it is shown that, although differently labeled, these indicators essentially converge on the same conceptual cores and reveal developmental discontinuities relative to the original DROP framework and the initial BRIC method. The central part of the paper examines the evolution of the BRIC method and its adaptations across different national contexts, including analyses of indicator applications in Norway, England, Nepal, Hungary, and Australia. Particular attention is paid to the role of the OECD methodological guidelines in indicator selection, with an emphasis on their frequent partial implementation, especially in areas related to handling missing data, reliability testing, and sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, the paper demonstrates that the BRIC method possesses high conceptual potential and broad applicability; however, without deeper contextual adaptation, stricter methodological discipline, and the integration of spatial and local approaches, its validity and operational usefulness in community resilience planning may remain limited.
Copyright (c) 2026 Dalibor Milenković, Vladimir Cvetković, Hatidža Beriša, Vladimir Jakovljević, Jasmina Gačić, Vanja Cvetković (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Terrorism and Destructive Cults as Sources of Societal Disruption: Conceptual Delineation for Effective Risk Management
Section: Articles Keywords: terrorism, destructive cults, risk management, violent extremism, conceptual boundaries This article examines the conceptual boundary between terrorism and destructive cults as a critical precondition for effective risk management. While terrorism and cultic violence are commonly treated as analytically distinct phenomena, empirical evidence increasingly reveals overlapping organizational structures, leadership dynamics, and escalation pathways. Drawing on a comparative qualitative analysis of cases situated in the grey zone between terrorism and destructive cults, the study demonstrates that rigid classificatory distinctions obscure early warning signals and delay preventive intervention. The findings show that escalation toward outward-facing violence is driven less by ideological labels than by internal organizational dynamics, including charismatic authority, centralized decision-making, social isolation, and ideological absolutism. Destructive cults often generate high levels of latent risk despite limited external violence, while terrorist organizations with cultic characteristics exhibit intensified escalation potential. Hybrid organizations, in particular, demonstrate non-linear trajectories in which violence emerges abruptly without substantial organizational transformation. By reframing conceptual boundaries as tools of risk governance rather than static categories, the article advances a risk-oriented analytical framework that supports early detection and proportionate intervention. The study contributes to debates in terrorism studies, sociology of religion, and security policy by demonstrating that conceptual clarity is not an abstract theoretical concern, but a necessary condition for preventive risk management and effective security governance.
Copyright (c) 2026 Marko Gnjatović, Slađan Milosavljević, Miraš Milašinović, Milica Bošković, Nenad Putnik, Emilia Alaverdov, Miranda Gurgenidze (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Disaster Recovery and Data Integrity in Odisha: Institutional Corruption, Crop Loss Mismatches, and the Case for District-Level Destruction Scorecards
Section: Articles Keywords: post-disaster recovery, fiscal leakage, destruction scorecard, disaster risk governance, Odisha Odisha’s globally recognised disaster preparedness has not been matched by equivalent integrity in post-disaster recovery, where systemic fraud undermines the effectiveness of relief and fiscal stability. This study investigates how temporal and spatial loopholes in crop loss compensation and paddy procurement systems are exploited through false damage claims, stored grain fraud, partial damage manipulation, and ghost beneficiaries, often enabled by verification lapses, procurement manipulation, and political shielding. Using state budget data from 1999-2025, official procurement and compensation records, and a detailed case study of Bhadrak district’s 2024 unseasonal rain event, the analysis quantifies fiscal leakage and its macroeconomic implications, estimating potential annual losses in the hundreds of crores. The paper proposes a five-part reform package- Destruction Scorecard Framework, Digital Farmer Registry, season-linked procurement protocols, community-led audit panels, and an integrated Relief–Procurement Dashboard supported by a feasibility and cost–benefit assessment projecting savings exceeding ₹450 crore per year. Policy recommendations include enacting a Disaster Recovery Accountability Bill and advocating for national replication to improve the accuracy of agricultural GDP estimates and strengthen governance credibility. The findings position Odisha to lead in transparent, data-driven disaster recovery, offering a replicable model for other high-risk states in India.
Copyright (c) 2026 Jeevan Nayak, Manas Ranjan Naya Jeevan Nayak1, Manas Ranjan Nayak2 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Site Suitability of Evacuation Centers in Zamboanga City, Philippines using GIS: Assessing Safety and Accessibility in Hazard-Prone Areas
Section: Articles Keywords: site suitability, evacuation center, natural hazard, safety, Zamboanga, GIS, AHP Climate change is a present-day problem, making areas previously unaffected by natural hazards now vulnerable to disasters. Building resilient cities involves ensuring effective disaster response, which includes providing safe and accessible evacuation centers (ECs). This study evaluates the suitability of ECs in Zamboanga City, Philippines, by assessing their safety and accessibility. Using QGIS, the exposure of ECs to various natural hazards was analyzed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to determine the weights for each criterion. Results revealed that most of the ECs are moderately suitable in terms of safety, with a few highly suitable. However, accessibility ratings varied, highlighting the need for improvements in infrastructure in certain areas. The study emphasizes the reality that not all safe ECs are accessible, and not all accessible ECs are safe.
Copyright (c) 2026 Mary Joanne C. Aniñon, Andres Winston C. Oreta (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Strategic Risks of AI-Enabled Automation: Implications for Crisis Management and Systemic Resilience
Section: Articles Keywords: artificial intelligence, military decision-making, risk governance, socio-technical systems, escalation risk Artificial intelligence is increasingly embedded in military decision-making systems, transforming not only operational performance but the structural conditions under which risk is produced and governed. This article develops a conceptual socio-technical analysis of AI-enabled automation through the lenses of systemic risk, risk governance, and resilience. Rather than treating AI as a discrete tool, the paper conceptualizes automation as a structural intervention in high-risk decision infrastructures. Four analytical findings are advanced. First, AI-mediated workflows redistribute practical control by shaping what information is salient, how threats are classified, and which actions appear feasible. Second, automation compresses decision time, reducing space for deliberation and increasing reliance on algorithmic outputs under uncertainty. Third, tighter coupling and accelerated interaction across domains enable localized errors or manipulations to propagate into broader escalation dynamics. Fourth, distributed human–machine architectures contribute to responsibility diffusion, weakening the alignment between accountability and effective decision influence. The article argues that prevailing “human-in-the-loop” safeguards are insufficient when control is reduced to technical override rather than institutional capacity for judgment and accountability. Effective integration of AI in high-risk environments requires governance arrangements that preserve human judgment as a strategic resource for crisis management and systemic resilience.
Copyright (c) 2026 Dejan Vuletić (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Regulating Emerging Technologies in Disaster Management: A Comparative Analysis of Security Governance and Legal Liability in India and Serbia
Section: Articles Keywords: disaster management, emerging technologies, security governance, legal liability, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure The integration of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), drones, IoT sensors, big data, and blockchain is revolutionizing disaster management by enhancing response speed and effectiveness. However, these advancements introduce significant challenges in security governance and legal liability, particularly around accountability, data protection, algorithmic bias, and the resilience of critical infrastructure. This comparative study examines how India and Serbia regulate the use of these technologies in disaster management, incorporating legal analysis, policy review, and expert insights. The findings highlight that while India focuses on national frameworks, particularly through the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Serbia aligns its disaster management approach with European Union standards and emphasizes regional cooperation. Both countries face common challenges, including the attribution of liability for autonomous decision-making, cybersecurity risks, and cross-border coordination. To address these issues, the study proposes a hybrid governance model that combines adaptive regulation, multi-stakeholder partnerships, liability-sharing mechanisms, and technology-neutral legal frameworks. The research argues that effective regulation must balance operational efficiency with security, legitimacy, and human rights protection, ultimately fostering public trust and enhancing disaster resilience.
Copyright (c) 2026 Manindra Singh Hanspal, Vladimir Cvetković, Milan Lipovac, Dejana Jovanović Popović (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Volunteer-led emergency flood response in Bangladesh: Evidence for strengthening disaster-risk governance
Section: Articles Keywords: Bangladesh, community resilience, disaster response, flood, public health, volunteer-led emergency response Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to floods, like natural disasters. Yet, contributions of volunteer-led non-profit organizations (NVOs) in emergency response remain underexplored. This paper investigates how an NVO responded to a flood, from rapid rescue to post-flood recovery, and evaluates the effects of its engagement on public health, organizational learning and growth, and community resilience. We applied a mixed-methods approach, combining organizational document reviews, structured interviews with seven key volunteers, direct field observations, and photographic documentation of relief and medical camp activities (21–28 August 2024). Quantitative data on reported illnesses were analyzed using STATA-18 and R through descriptive statistics, univariate analysis, post-hoc comparisons, and multinomial logistic regression. Qualitative data underwent thematic analysis with a deductive coding framework. The NVO provided critical support through rapid rescue, targeted relief, and medical camps addressing integumentary (46.5%), respiratory (13.2%), skeletal (5%), gastrointestinal (2.6%), and other illnesses (32.7%). Thematic analysis highlighted organizational strengths, including field-level experience, decentralized leadership, adaptability, and strong collaborative capacity with government and other non-government actors. Despite resource constraints, the NVO demonstrated high operational effectiveness and recognition during the crisis. Formal integration of NVOs into national disaster coordination mechanisms is recommended. Institutional, technical, and financial support can strengthen disaster risk reduction, governance, and social development in resource-constrained settings. This study establishes novelty by linking health impact assessment with organizational learning in volunteer-led disaster response, combining quantitative outcomes and qualitative insights to show how grassroots organizations complement formal disaster management and provide actionable recommendations for integration into governance.
Copyright (c) 2026 Meherjan Islam, Md. Abidul Islam, Farzana Afroj, Afra Adiba Islam, Onamika Karmakar, Abdullah Al Mahmud Nayem, Md. Ahasanul Hoque (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Spatiotemporal Patterns of Cancer among Women in Central Serbia: Relevance for Risk-Informed Health Planning
Section: Articles Keywords: cancers, women, Central Serbia, Hot Spot Analysis Malignant diseases are among the most prevalent health conditions affecting the female population in the Republic of Serbia. This study provides an overview of the most common malignant diseases – cancers in women in the central part of Serbia from 1999 to 2021, including breast, cervical, uterine, colorectal, bladder, ovarian, pancreatic, lung, and bronchial cancers from a geographic perspective. The spatial hot spots were identified using the well-known Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. New and consecutive hot spots for lung and bronchus cancer incidence were detected in Zlatiborski, Moravički, Mačvanski, and Beogradski counties, with oscillating and sporadic hot spots in the others. Consecutive hot spots for lung and bronchus cancer mortality were identified in Beogradski, Kolubarski, Podunavski, and Šumadijski counties, whereas oscillating hot spots were identified in Braničevski and Pomoravski counties. New hotspots for ovarian cancer incidence were concentrated in Zlatiborski and Moravički counties, whereas cold spots for uterine cancer incidence were identified in Kolubarski, Šumadijski, and Mačvanski counties. Pancreatic cancer incidence exhibited consecutive and sporadic patterns across multiple regions, while bladder cancer incidence showed widespread hot spots. The results provide valuable evidence on regions most severely affected and underscore the necessity of targeted preventive and intervention strategies. This analysis contributes to improving public health outcomes in Serbia and offers a model for similar studies in other countries.
Copyright (c) 2026 Emina Kričković, Tin Lukić, Vladimir M. Cvetković, Zoran Kričković (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Unveiling An Efficient Framework for Predicting Flood Risk Areas, Using Earth Observatory Data, Google Earth Engine, and Multicriteria Decision Making-Analytical Hierarchy Process
Section: Articles Keywords: Google Earth Engine, MCDA-AHP, GIS, remote sensing, flood prediction, Niger East The flood risk in the Niger-East region of Niger State is increasingly becoming an annual event. Climatic shifts, land-surface modifications, and human socioeconomic factors are among the conditions that trigger floods. This study explores geospatial technology and multicriteria decision analysis-analytical hierarchy process (MCDA-AHP) to develop a flood risk prediction system that leverages Google Earth Engine to process remote sensing data directly influencing flood risk. Elevation, slope, drainage density, rainfall, soil, proximity to drainage, proximity to road, population density, flow accumulation, and land use land cover (LULC). The weightage assignment was performed using the MCDA-AHP technique. Flood risk classes predicted as very low, 13.82 km2 (9.29%), low, 18.77 km2 (12.61%), low – moderate, 111.97 km2 (75.24%), high, 3.32 km2 (2.23%), and very high, 0.93 km2 (0.63%) of the study area, respectively. This research presents a flood emergency response system that highlights the impact of different prioritization criteria across multiple conditions. Therefore, integrating GEE to generate different flood-conditioning risk indicators, prioritized and ranked using MCDA-AHP, is crucial for developing an efficient methodological framework for flood risk prediction across a wide region, achieving 88% precision. Thus, effective for evidence-based decision-making by authorities, policy makers, and emergency response agencies.
Copyright (c) 2026 Ishaku Bashir Yakubu, Sheikh D. Abubakar, Solomon Ndace Jiya, Yakubu Muhammad, Aisha Yakubu Aliyu (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Exploring Non-Structural Flood Risk Management Measures in Haor Areas of Sunamganj, Bangladesh
Section: Articles Keywords: non-structural, flood risk management, boro farmers, haor areas, Bangladesh This is a qualitative study focusing on non-structural flood management measures to support Boro rice farmers in Tahirpur Upazila in Sunamganj District, a highly flood-prone area. The objective of the study is to analyze existing non-structural flood management practices, including flood forecasting and dissemination processes, as well as farmer education and training. This study found that floods, especially flash floods, are devastating and sorrowful for the farmers in the area, destroying their crops, hard work, and livelihood. They remain far from modern technology-based agricultural and information systems. According to experienced respondents, one of the major problems of non-structured flood risk management is the unavailability of timely upstream information, particularly for adjacent flood-prone areas in India, including Meghalaya, which leads to unexpected flash floods in the study area. Due to insufficient data or information, residents in the study area still rely on perception and indigenous knowledge regarding flood-related issues. This study gathers extensive data through in-depth interviews and Key Informant Interviews (KII). Additionally, other convenient techniques have also been used to collect relevant information.
Copyright (c) 2026 Hajera Aktar Aktar, Syeda Ismat Ara Jahan, Md Rakib Mia Mia, Habibur Rahman Masrur Masrur (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Operational Capabilities in Disaster Emergency Management of Bureau of Fire Protection Personnel in Camarines Norte, Philippines
Section: Articles Keywords: operational capabilities, disaster emergency management, resource planning, responsiveness, organizational management, information dissemination This study assessed the operational capabilities of Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) personnel in disaster emergency management in the Province of Camarines Norte, Philippines. Preliminary observations and institutional reports indicated several operational constraints that potentially affect the effectiveness of disaster response in the province. Among the most pressing concerns are the limited number of personnel assigned to several municipal fire stations, uneven manpower distribution across municipalities, constraints in the availability and readiness of firefighting and rescue equipment, and the irregular conduct of specialized disaster response and Incident Command System (ICS) trainings. The study assessed the operational capabilities of the Bureau of Fire Protection personnel in Camarines Norte for Disaster Emergency Management from 2024 to 2025. The study determined the profile of the respondents in terms of age, sex, civil status, educational attainment, length of service, and relevant training attended. Also, in terms of operational capabilities in disaster emergency management, it focused only on resource planning, organizational management, responsiveness, and information dissemination, which was crucial to personnel in terms of their level of knowledge at every level, using the researcher’s structured research instrument. The method of data collection was an online survey to gather primary data from the selected respondents. The study was limited only to those personnel who had completed the different levels of the Incident Command System, wherein out of 207 personnel, only 82 had training on the different levels across the twelve municipalities of the province, to gather the needed information during the collection of the data in the form of a questionnaire. The study utilized a descriptive survey research design and employed a pre-tested questionnaire to collect primary data. A total of 82 BFP personnel participated in the study, drawn from 12 municipal fire stations and the BFP Provincial Office in Camarines Norte, including Basud, Daet, Mercedes, San Lorenzo, San Vicente, Talisay, Vinzons, Labo, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga, and Sta. Elena Fire Stations, as well as the Office of the Provincial Fire Marshal. In terms of operational capabilities, BFP personnel were rated “very much capable” in organizational management (M = 4.31), information dissemination (M = 4.40), and responsiveness (M = 4.29). However, resource planning obtained a slightly lower rating of “capable” (M = 4.18), indicating room for improvement. Based on these results, an intervention plan was developed to address identified gaps, particularly in workforce and equipment allocation, equipment maintenance, training frequency, public awareness activities, and governance-related constraints. Across the four operational capability domains, the three lowest-rated indicators were related to: (1) the adequacy and readiness of firefighting and rescue equipment, (2) the frequency and accessibility of specialized disaster response and Incident Command System (ICS) trainings, and (3) the reach and effectiveness of disaster preparedness information dissemination to vulnerable communities. These priority gaps highlight the areas where improvement efforts should be directed most urgently.
Copyright (c) 2026 Mark Anthony R. Pimentel, Maria Cristina C. Azuelo (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Livelihood Vulnerability and Adaptive Strategies Assessment of Farmers Living in Rajapur Municipality, Bardiya, Nepal
Section: Articles Keywords: climate change, flood hazard, vulnerability, adaptation, farmer’s livelihoods Floods in the Terai region of Nepal cause substantial damage to property, increasing household indebtedness, disrupt sustainable livelihoods, and trigger migration. Despite the growing frequency and severity of floods, flood vulnerability remains under-researched. This study assesses local climatic trends, livelihood vulnerability, and adaptation strategies among farmers in Wards 1, 3, 4, and 7 of Rajapur Municipality. Specifically, it analyzes local climate trends to determine hazard exposure and assesses the livelihood vulnerability of small, medium, and large farmers using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC frameworks. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of adaptation strategies adopted by these farmer groups in responding to climate-related hazards. It had combined 30 years of climate data with empirical evidence from 160 households, four focus group discussions, and five key informant interviews. Results indicated an average annual temperature increase of 0.0084 °C, with seasonally consistent warming trends, except during the post-monsoon period. Annual average rainfall increased by 8.318 mm annually, while seasonal patterns revealed declining winter and post-monsoon precipitation and rising pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall. The data confirmed that the small farmers have the highest levels of vulnerability, followed by medium and large-scale farmers. Adaptation strategies identified as effective included early warning systems, flood shelters, raised tubewells, capacity-building programs, social networks, and river embankments. This finding contributed to a deeper understanding of flood-related livelihood vulnerabilities and adaptive responses in the region, providing evidence-based guidance for interventions and risk-reduction planning.
Copyright (c) 2026 Prajun Chapagain, Ram Asheshwar Mandal, Ajay Bhakta Mathema, Sudip Pandey, Sewak Bhatta (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
A Comprehensive Assessment of Mining Accident Severity Using Machine Learning Methods
Section: Articles Keywords: behavioral factors, mining industry, safety, accidents, machine learning The mining sector is recognized as one of the riskiest in the world. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing accident severity. In this study, eight machine learning (ML) methods were systematically evaluated, among which Gradient Boosting and Random Forest emerged as the top-performing models. These ensemble models demonstrated consistently high performance across multiple evaluation metrics (Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, and ROC AUC), highlighting their robustness and reliability in distinguishing between fatal and non-fatal accident outcomes. Across both impurity-based (Gini importance) and robust model-agnostic (SHAP) frameworks, Risk Taking, Age, and Experience emerge as the most influential predictors. Social engagement metrics vary in importance, collectively suggesting that social support systems may play a meaningful role in moderating the severity of accidents. These findings substantiate the utility of machine learning not only for accurate outcome classification but also for elucidating the multifaceted drivers of accident severity, thereby informing targeted intervention and prevention strategies.
Copyright (c) 2026 Irshad Ahmad, Ajay Kumar Guptab (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Fire Protection of Religious Buildings in Serbia: Challenges, Risks, and Improvement Measures
Section: Articles Keywords: disasters, Orthodox churches, fires, fire protection, buildings, cultural heritage Religious buildings in the Republic of Serbia, particularly Orthodox churches and monasteries, represent a significant component of the nation’s spiritual, cultural, and historical heritage; however, they remain highly susceptible to fire hazards. This study evaluates the current state of fire protection in these structures, with particular attention to risks associated with architectural features, liturgical practices, age, cultural significance, and institutional protection frameworks. The analysis draws upon scientific and professional literature, relevant normative and institutional frameworks, and documented fire incidents in religious buildings. The results demonstrate that fire protection remains fragmented and insufficiently integrated, with technical measures frequently addressed in isolation from legal, organizational, cultural, and financial considerations. Key challenges include outdated electrical systems, the use of open flames during rituals, limited financial resources, inadequate technical documentation, and constraints imposed by cultural heritage protection. The study contends that effective fire protection for religious buildings necessitates a comprehensive, context-sensitive approach that incorporates preventive technical systems, risk assessment, legal compliance, institutional collaboration, and education for clergy and users. This research contributes to the field by emphasizing the need for a systematic, proactive fire risk management framework for religious buildings in Serbia to safeguard both human safety and cultural heritage.
Copyright (c) 2026 Željko Lazić, Kristijan Đujić, Miraš Milašinović (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Structural Vulnerability Assessment of Residential Buildings to Windstorm Hazard with Impact Analysis on Forest Stands: A Case Study from Vojvodina, Serbia
Section: Articles Keywords: hazards, vulnerability assessment, windstorm disaster, hazard, image analysis, forest, buildings This study presents an indicator-based methodology for assessing the structural vulnerability of individual residential buildings to windstorm hazard. The methodology is based on the Household Sector Approach: CIMDEN 2001 procedure, with parameters adapted to assess the vulnerability of an individual house to windstorm events. In the case of a windstorm event, the structural vulnerability of a house is analyzed through five parameters with assigned weights: roof type, roof construction, roof sides, roof material, number of floors, and doors and windows on non-roof sides. The further classification into low, medium, and high classes is based on construction material and building type, recognizing that some are more vulnerable than others. The material classification is based on the analysis of historical windstorm event outcomes and on material and building types used in specific regions of interest (in this work, Vojvodina, an autonomous province in Serbia). The material and building types in this region are similar across the whole Pannonian Basin. During the development of this methodology, the authors also incorporated the indigenous knowledge and experience of structural damage consequences from two recent supercell storm events on 19 and 21 July 2023. that heavily hit the Novi Sad metropolitan area and caused disruption and destruction of forest areas near the Danube River, power lines, and roofs on schools, individual houses, residential buildings, and companies. The methodology was applied to 50 houses in Bačka Palanka and 11 houses in Begeč, both of which were affected by severe supercell windstorms on 19 and 21 July 2023. Building attributes were derived from Google Street View imagery (2014) and field survey (2026). The resulting vulnerability assessment enabled spatial visualization and comparative assessment in a GIS environment. Buildings with lightweight roof structures, unsealed edges, and multiple openings exhibited higher vulnerability scores, whereas massive masonry structures with sealed roof systems showed greater resistance. Direct windstorm impacts on adjacent riparian forest stands were assessed using Sentinel-2 NDVI change detection, identifying 173.87 ha of severe canopy loss. Beyond immediate damage, the study outlines potential cascading socioecological effects in which household recovery needs may increase pressure on forest ecosystem services.
Copyright (c) 2026 Lazar Jeftic, Vladimir Višacki, Srdjan Stojnić, Dejan B. Stojanovic, Lazar Kesić, Bratislav Matović, Saša Orlović (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Recurrent Urban Flooding in Nairobi City: A Systematic Review of Environmental Determinants, Public Health Impacts and Policy Gaps
Section: Articles Keywords: disaster, urban flooding, Nairobi, public health, climate change, diarrhoeal disease, riparian encroachment, urban planning, waterborne disease, Kenya Nairobi has experienced recurrent and increasingly severe urban flooding over the past two decades. The April–May 2024 floods claimed between 267 and 294 lives and displaced approximately 380,000 people across Kenya, while the March 2026 flash floods — triggered by 112mm of rainfall within 24 hours — killed at least 66 people nationally and caused an estimated USD 300 million in infrastructure damage. These events reflect a systemic failure of intersecting environmental, structural, and governance determinants. This narrative systematic review (PRISMA 2020-adapted; final search: 31 March 2026) synthesizes evidence on the environmental determinants, public health burden, and governance gaps driving Nairobi's recurring floods. Searches across PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, Google Scholar, WHO IRIS, ReliefWeb, and national government portals identified 443 records, of which 68 sources met inclusion criteria across three evidence tiers. Five interconnected environmental determinants were identified: rapid unplanned urbanisation with significant green space loss; illegal encroachment on riparian reserves in violation of Kenya's 60-metre buffer zone mandate; ageing drainage infrastructure; intensifying bimodal rainfall amplified by climate change and El Niño; and upstream land degradation reducing catchment retention. Public health consequences include direct mortality, mass displacement, cholera and diarrhoeal disease outbreaks, vector-borne disease resurgence, and significant mental health burden, all disproportionately affecting informal settlement residents. Persistent governance gaps in land-use enforcement, flood risk assessment, inter-agency coordination, and community inclusion perpetuate this vulnerability. Lastly, 19 evidence-grounded recommendations are proposed across environmental, public health, and governance domains. Recurrent urban flooding in Nairobi is a preventable public health emergency amenable to structural intervention, with findings applicable to urban flood risk management across sub-Saharan African cities facing comparable intersections of rapid urbanisation, governance failure, and climate-change exposure.
Copyright (c) 2026 Henry Koech (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Institutionalizing Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile States: Local Governance Capacity, Conflict Insecurity, and Community Resilience in Lower Juba, Somalia
Section: Articles Keywords: disaster risk reduction, governance capacity, state fragility, armed conflict, community resilience, Somalia, adaptive governance Fragile and conflict-affected states face compounded disaster risks where weak governance structures intersect with climate stressors and armed violence. This study examines how local governance capacity influences community resilience through the institutionalization of disaster risk reduction, and under what conditions conflict insecurity moderates this relationship, in Lower Juba, Somalia. Drawing on adaptive governance theory, institutional theory, and community resilience frameworks, the study tests a moderated mediation model using survey data from 400 households across four drought- and conflict-affected communities. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the four-factor structure of the constructs, with a comparative fit index of 0.96 and a root mean square error of approximation of 0.05. Bootstrapped mediation analysis with 5,000 samples revealed that disaster risk reduction institutionalization partially mediates the relationship between governance capacity and community resilience, with an indirect effect of β = 0.28 and a 95% confidence interval of [0.19, 0.39], accounting for 53.8% of the total effect. Moderation analysis showed that conflict insecurity significantly weakens the positive association between governance capacity and resilience, with a change in R-squared of 0.04 and p = 0.003. Findings demonstrate that governance capacity enhances resilience primarily when disaster risk reduction mechanisms are institutionalized, yet persistent insurgent insecurity undermines institutional effectiveness. The study contributes rare empirical evidence from a highly under-researched fragile setting. It offers context-specific policy guidance on integrating conflict-sensitive disaster risk reduction in sub-Saharan Africa.
Copyright (c) 2026 Akaninyene Unaam (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Policy, Risk and Innovation: A Mixed-Methods Framework for Using AI to Foster Inclusion in Marginalized Communities in Bangladesh
Section: Articles Keywords: hazards, artificial intelligence, government policies, marginalized communities, Bangladesh, inclusive education This study examines how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and the implementation of policies shape inclusive educational outcomes for marginalized learners in Bangladesh, using evidence from Sherpur Sadar Upazilla. A convergent mixed-methods design integrated a student survey (N = 213; seven institutions; March–September 2024) with qualitative data from 37 stakeholders (teachers and policymakers) collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Quantitative findings show that AI tool adoption was the strongest predictor of a composite educational outcome score (β = 0.38, p < 0.001), followed by institutional support (β = 0.25, p = 0.01). In contrast, the policy implementation gap—defined as the mismatch between policy intent and on-the-ground delivery—was negatively associated with outcomes (β = −0.12, p = 0.04). Digital infrastructure quality was positively associated with the outcome but was not statistically significant in the multivariable model (β = 0.17, p = 0.12). The model demonstrated strong explanatory power (R² = 0.67; F(4, 208) = 42.3; p < 0.001). Disparity analyses revealed persistent urban–rural inequities in reliable internet access (94.6% vs. 69.7%) and device readiness, with tablet access emerging as a key enabler of advanced AI-supported learning. Qualitative results corroborated three binding constraints: limited teacher AI preparedness, affordability barriers, and trust concerns related to privacy and algorithmic bias. Building on these findings, the paper proposes a policy–innovation framework centered on localized AI toolkits, sustained teacher upskilling, device-access interventions, and enforceable fairness and transparency safeguards to advance equitable learning opportunities.
Copyright (c) 2026 Ritesh Karmaker, Vladimir M. Cvetković (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Beyond the Floodwaters: Unraveling the Deep-Rooted Causes of Educational Exclusion in Haor Communities in Bangladesh
Section: Articles Keywords: flood, Haor, school drop-out, educational marginalization, climate vulnerability, rural education Primary school dropout is an urgent issue in the Haor regions of Bangladesh due to recurrent flooding and socio-economic barriers, leading to educational exclusion. The study aims to highlight the main causes of dropout in Haor villages of Ajmiriganj Upazila, Habiganj District. While progress has been made in providing access to basic education, dropout rates are very high in Haor regions, indicating that structural barriers to basic education are more serious than environmental ones. The study is guided by a theoretical framework that encompasses comprehensive theoretical inputs, such as Social Reproduction Theory and Human Capital Theory. The study adopted a primarily descriptive qualitative research design. Interviews, FGDs, audio recordings, and observations of 350 people (students, guardians, teachers, and school management committee members) in five unions were conducted to gather data. Secondary sources were books, journal articles, official publications, and reputable websites. The results show that the low employment opportunities for guardians, lack of qualified teachers, environmental vulnerability, and early marriage, particularly among girls, are the key factors that lead to school dropouts. Its key policy and practice implications include improving household livelihoods, upgrading school facilities, strengthening teacher recruitment, and holding community-based awareness sessions to reduce the early marriage rate. These are essential strategies to support educational resilience and inclusive development in the Haor regions of Bangladesh.
Copyright (c) 2026 Mohammad Fakhrus Salam, Shimul Gope, Sharmin Akter (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Assessing Disaster Risk and Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Agriculture: Evidence from Chandradip Union of Bauphal Upazila, Bangladesh
Section: Articles Keywords: disaster risk management, coastal agriculture, agricultural resilience, hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, adaptation strategies, riverbank erosion, storm surge, cyclone, Bangladesh The coastal zone of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, which significantly affect agricultural production and livelihoods. Agriculture is the primary livelihood for most coastal communities. Patuakhali is a coastal district of Bangladesh, and Bauphal Upazila is one of its most agriculturally dependent areas. Therefore, this study was conducted in Chandradip Union of Bauphal Upazila to assess disaster risks in the agricultural sector. The main objective of the study was to identify and assess natural disaster risks in agriculture through hazard, vulnerability, and capacity assessments, and to explore suitable adaptation strategies for enhancing disaster resilience. Both primary and secondary data were used in this research. A total of 100 households were randomly selected and interviewed using semi-structured questionnaires. In addition, five Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and five Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) were conducted. Field observations and relevant secondary data sources were also utilized. The findings reveal that riverbank erosion (1.043), storm surge (0.942), and cyclone (0.934) are the most significant disaster risks affecting the agricultural sector due to their high hazard intensity, high vulnerability, and low coping capacity. The study further identifies that alternative livelihood options (27%), loans and subsidies (25%), and short-duration rice cultivation (24%) are the most commonly recommended adaptation strategies by the farming community. These are followed by embankment construction (22%) and farm mechanization (2%). The study highlights the need for integrated risk management and strengthened adaptive capacity to enhance agricultural resilience in coastal Bangladesh. This study provided empirical evidence, based primarily on data, on how vulnerability is reduced through an adaptation strategy. The results of this study will help people in coastal communities reduce their vulnerability. This study can assist policymakers and donor agencies in developing policies and funding different development projects in Bangladesh's rural coastal community.
Copyright (c) 2026 Md. Faisal, Imran Hawladar, Vladimir Cvetković (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Insurance as a Model for Protecting the Economic System from Natural Disasters
Section: Articles Keywords: insurance, protection, prevention, risk, disaster, public interest Natural disasters increasingly generate serious economic consequences, including direct property losses, disruption of production and trade flows, increased public expenditure, and pressure on state budgets. In this context, insurance represents an important instrument of disaster risk financing and economic system protection. The aim of this paper is to examine the role of insurance as a model for protecting the economic system from the consequences of natural disasters, with particular reference to the Republic of Serbia. The paper applies normative legal analysis, theoretical analysis, comparative analysis, and secondary data analysis. Special attention is given to the relationship between voluntary and compulsory insurance, public-private partnership models, catastrophe insurance pools, and the role of the state in disaster risk financing. The findings indicate that an effective insurance system can reduce the financial burden on the state, accelerate post-disaster recovery, and strengthen the resilience of households, businesses, and the wider economic system. However, in Serbia, the development of such a model requires stronger institutional support, improved insurance culture, subsidized premiums for vulnerable groups, reliable hazard data, and a clearer division of responsibilities between the state, insurers, and insured entities. The paper concludes that a combined public-private model of disaster insurance would be the most appropriate direction for strengthening economic resilience to natural disasters in Serbia.
Copyright (c) 2026 Luka Baturan, Goran Milošević, Cvjetana Cvjetković Ivetić (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0