Hazard risk evaluation of COVID-19: A case study

Authors

  • Subhadip Ulal Department of Environmental Science, The University of Burdwan, Golapbag, Bardhaman - 713104, West Bengal, India.
  • Sucharita Saha Department of Environmental Science, The University of Burdwan, Golapbag, Bardhaman - 713104, West Bengal, India.
  • Srimanta Gupta Department of Environmental Science, The University of Burdwan, Golapbag, Bardhaman - 713104, West Bengal, India.
  • Dipti Karmakar Department of Environmental Science, The University of Burdwan, Golapbag, Bardhaman - 713104, West Bengal, India.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2023.5.2.6

Keywords:

COVID-19, Kerala, Geo-environmental factor, C19RA model, AHP, C19HZ, C19VZ, Rainfall, Forest

Abstract

The present research deals with an in-depth analysis of COVID-19 risk in the state of Kerala using the integrated approach of the hazard and vulnerability in a GIS platform. Considering the probable causative factors of this disease, several geo-environmental indicators are analyzed through various statistical and geospatial techniques. Lorenz curve indicates an uneven distribution of COVID-19 instances in Kerala. Hazard analysis is formulated based on the proximity to hotspots and LULC followed by vulnerability analysis using an integrated analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Risk analysis reveals that COVID-19 infection poses a very serious threat to around 2.39% of Kerala's total land area, with high, medium and low risks of 38, 44 and 14% respectively. The outcomes of this research will be a first-hand tool for policymakers to safeguard the population in high-risk potential zones from the future spread of infectious disease.

References

Alam, M. Z. (2021). Is population density a risk factor for communicable diseases like COVID-19? A case of Bangladesh. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 33(8), 949-950. doi.org/10.1177/1010539521998858

Archila, P. A., Danies, G., Molina, J., Truscott de Mejía, A. M., & Restrepo, S. (2021). Towards covid-19 literacy: investigating the literacy levels of university students in Colombia. Science & Education, 30, 785-808.

Arif, M., & Sengupta, S. (2021). Nexus between population density and novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in the south Indian states: A geo-statistical approach. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(7), 10246-10274.

Bhadra A., Mukherjee A., Sarkar K. (2021). Impact of population density on Covid-19 infected and mortality rate in India. Model Earth Syst Environ 7:623–629. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00984-7

Biswas, B., Roy, R., Roy, T., Chowdhury, S., Dhara, A., & Mistry, K. (2022). Geographical Appraisal of COVID-19 in West Bengal, India. GeoJournal, 87(4), 2641-2662. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10388-4

Briz-Redón, Á., & Serrano-Aroca, Á. (2020). A spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of temperature on COVID-19 early evolution in Spain. Science of the total environment, 728, 138811.

Bukhari, Q., Massaro, J. M., D’Agostino Sr, R. B., & Khan, S. (2020). Effects of weather on coronavirus pandemic. International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(15), 5399.

Chongsuvivatwong, V., Phua, K. H., Yap, M. T., Pocock, N. S., Hashim, J. H., Chhem, R., Lopez, A. D. (2011). Health and health-care systems in southeast Asia: Diversity and transitions. The Lancet, 377(9763), 429–437.

Fang, L., Huang, J., Zhang, Z., &Nitivattananon, V. (2020). Data-driven framework for delineating urban population dynamic patterns: Case study on Xiamen Island, China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 62, 102365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102365

Gao, Z., Jiang, Y., He, J., Wu, J., Xu, J., & Christakos, G. (2022). An AHP-based regional COVID-19 vulnerability model and its application in China. Modeling earth systems and environment, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s40808-021-01244-y

Gastwirth, J. L. (1972). The estimation of the Lorenz curve and Gini index. The review of economics and statistics, 306-316.

Ghosh, S., Das, A., Hembram, T. K., Saha, S., Pradhan, B., & Alamri, A. M. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 induced lockdown on environmental quality in four indian megacities using landsat 8 OLI and TIRS-derived data and mamdani fuzzy logic modelling approach. Sustainability, 12(13), 5464.

Goyal, N. (2019). Disaster governance and community resilience: The law and the role of SDMAs. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(2), 61-75.

Hassaan, M. A., Abdelwahab, R. G., Elbarky, T. A., &Ghazy, R. M. (2021). GIS-based analysis framework to identify the determinants of COVID-19 incidence and fatality in Africa. Journal of Primary Care & Community Health, 12, 21501327211041208.

India today https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/kerala-reports-first-confirmed-novel-coronavirus-case-in-india-1641593-2020-01-30

Iqbal, M. M., Abid, I., Hussain, S., Shahzad, N., Waqas, M. S., & Iqbal, M. J. (2020). The effects of regional climatic condition on the spread of COVID-19 at global scale. Science of the Total Environment, 739, 140101.

Islam, N., Bukhari, Q., Jameel, Y., Shabnam, S., Erzurumluoglu, A. M., Siddique, M. A., ... & D'Agostino Sr, R. B. (2021). COVID-19 and climatic factors: A global analysis. Environmental research, 193, 110355.

Jahangiri M., Jahangiri M., Najafgholipour M. (2020). The sensitivity and specificity analyses of ambient temperature and population size on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in different provinces of Iran”. Sci. Total Environ.; 728:138872.

Kanga, S., Meraj, G., Farooq, M., Nathawat, M. S., & Singh, S. K. (2021). Analyzing the risk to COVID‐19 infection using remote sensing and GIS. Risk Analysis, 41(5), 801-813.

Khaniabadi, Y. O., Sicard, P., Dehghan, B., Mousavi, H., Saeidimehr, S., Farsani, M. H., ... &Birgani, P. M. (2022). COVID-19 Outbreak Related to PM10, PM2. 5, Air Temperature and Relative Humidity in Ahvaz, Iran. Dr.Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Journal, 1-14.

Koonin, L. M. (2020). Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Now is the time to refresh pandemic plans. Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning, 13(4), 1–15

Mahato, R., Bushi, D., & Nimasow, G. (2020). AHP and GIS-based risk zonation of COVID-19 in North East India. Current World Environment, 15(3), 640-652.

Mahato, S., Pal, S., & Ghosh, K. G. (2020). Effect of lockdown amid COVID-19 pandemic on air quality of the megacity Delhi, India. Science of the Total Environment, 730, 139086.

Malakar, S. (2022). Geospatial modelling of COVID-19 vulnerability using an integrated fuzzy MCDM approach: a case study of West Bengal, India. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 8(3), 3103-3116.

Manoj, M. G., Kumar, M. S., Valsaraj, K. T., Sivan, C., & Vijayan, S. K. (2020). “Potential link between compromised air quality and transmission of the novel corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) in affected areas”. Environmental research, 190, 110001.

Md Iderus, N. H., Lakha Singh, S. S., Mohd Ghazali, S., Yoon Ling, C., Cia Vei, T., Md Zamri, A. S. S., & Gill, B. S. (2022). Correlation between population density and COVID-19 cases during the third wave in Malaysia: Effect of the delta variant. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(12), 7439.

Mehta, S. K., Ananthavel, A., Reddy, T. R., Ali, S., Mehta, S. B., Kakkanattu, S. P., ... & Betsy, K. B. (2023). Indirect Response of the Temperature, Humidity, and Rainfall on the Spread of COVID-19 over the Indian Monsoon Region. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 180(1), 383-404.

Mishra, S. V., Gayen, A., & Haque, S. M. (2020). COVID-19 and urban vulnerability in India. Habitat international, 103, 102230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint. 2020.102230

Naik M. S., Panaskar H. C., Khatti Y. N, Dwivedi T. A. (2020). Study of factors correlating with pandemic COVID-19 cases globally. Journal of Engineering Science, Vol 11, Issue 4 , April/2020 ISSN NO:0377-9254

NSD (2020). Centre asks states to identify pockets of critical interventions for COVID-19 management; Retrieved from http://newsonair.com/Main-News-Details.aspx?id=387248

Pani, S. K., Lin, N. H., & RavindraBabu, S. (2020). Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore. Science of the Total Environment, 740, 140112.

Rahman, M. R., Islam, A. H., & Islam, M. N. (2020). Geospatial modelling on the spread and dynamics of 154 day outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Bangladesh towards vulnerability zoning and management approaches. Modeling earth systems and environment, 7, 2059-2087. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00962-z

Rosario, D. K., Mutz, Y. S., Bernardes, P. C., & Conte-Junior, C. A. (2020). Relationship between COVID-19 and weather: Case study in a tropical country. International journal of hygiene and environmental health, 229, 113587.

Saaty RW. (1987). The analytic hierarchy process—what it is and how it is used. Math Modell. 9(3–5):161–176.

Saaty, T. L. (1990). How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process. European journal of operational research, 48(1), 9-26.

Sahoo, M. M. (2021). Significance between air pollutants, meteorological factors, and COVID-19 infections: probable evidences in India. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 40474-40495.

Sarkar, S. K. (2020). COVID-19 susceptibility mapping using multicriteria evaluation. Disaster medicine and public health preparedness, 14(4), 521-537. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.175

Tobías, A., & Molina, T. (2020). Is temperature reducing the transmission of COVID-19?. Environmental research, 186, 109553.

World Health Organization https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

Xie, J., & Zhu, Y. (2020). Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China. Science of the Total Environment, 724, 138201.

Zhu, N., Zhang, D., Wang, W., Li, X., Yang, B., Song, J., & Tan, W. (2020). A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. New England journal of medicine.

Downloads

Published

2023-12-31

How to Cite

Ulal, S. ., Saha, S. ., Gupta, S., & Karmakar, D. . (2023). Hazard risk evaluation of COVID-19: A case study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 5(2), 81–101. https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2023.5.2.6

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 2 (2023): International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM)

Section

Articles

License

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) allows authors to deposit publisher's version/PDF in an institutional repository, research gate, Academia.edu, and non-commercial subject-based repositories, or to publish it on Author's personal website (including social networking sites) and/or departmental website, at any time after publication in compliance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial – NoDerrivatives 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). The Publisher's copyright and source must be acknowledged and a link must be made to the article's DOI (HTML link).