Conflict Risk Monitoring for Conflict Prevention in Ethiopia: The Case of Ataye Towen, North Shewa, Amhara Region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.1.10Keywords:
security, emergencies, peace council, peace forum, focal person, conflict indicators, monitoringAbstract
This study investigates the effectiveness of conflict monitoring within early warning systems in Ethiopia, focusing on Ataye town in the North Shewa Administrative Zone. A mixed-methods approach with a sequential exploratory design was employed. Data were collected through key informant interviews with 20 stakeholders, surveys from 385 respondents (253 males and 127 females), focus groups, and document reviews. Qualitative data were analysed thematically, while quantitative data were examined using descriptive and inferential statistics. Key findings highlight the significant roles of institutional actors, including peace councils, peace clubs, interfaith councils, and community monitors, in fostering grassroots conflict awareness and vigilance. However, a critical gap was identified in the uniformity of conflict indicators, as 44 indicators from the Minister of Peace varied from those used by the police and disaster management, undermining coherent monitoring efforts. Recommendations include strengthening the capacities of monitoring institutions, standardising conflict indicators for consistency, and establishing conflict early warning curricula in higher education to train qualified personnel. These measures aim to enhance Ethiopia's conflict monitoring and prevention strategies, effectively addressing the complexities of inter-ethnic conflicts.
Downloads
References
1. Abbink, J. (2021). Ethnic conflicts and political instability in Ethiopia: An analysis of recent developments. African Affairs, 120(479), 1-24.
2. Abebe, A., & Kebede, T. (2020). Understanding the dynamics of inter-ethnic conflict in Ethiopia: A comprehensive analysis. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 15(3), 1-15.
3. Abebe, Y. (2007). The role of peace committees in conflict resolution in Ethiopia: A case study of the Oromiya region. African Journal on Conflict Resolution, 7(2), 101-123.
4. Abebe, Y. (2018). Inter-ethnic conflict resolution in Ethiopia. Journal of Peace Research, 55(4), 507-520. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343318770289
5. Abebe, Y., & Kebede, A. (2020). The role of poverty, inequality, and political exclusion in inter-ethnic conflict in Ethiopia: A mixed methods approach. Journal of Peace Research, 57(2), 233-247. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319879184
6. Abualenain, J. (2024). Psychological preparedness in disaster management: A survey of leaders in Saudi Arabia's emergency operation centers. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104871.
7. Adebayo, A. G. (2015). Community-based conflict monitoring: Lessons from the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. African Conflict and Peacebuilding Review, 5(1), 45-68.
8. Akcinaroglu, S., & Radnitz, S. C. (2016). Forecasting riots and ethnic violence. Journal of Peace Research, 53(3), 389-404. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343315621315
9. Alemayehu, G. (2012). Federalism and ethnic conflict in Ethiopia: A comparative study of the Somali and Afar regions. African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 6(6), 289-300.
10. Amare, A. (2012). The role of field monitors in early warning and conflict prevention in Ethiopia: A case study of the Gambella region. Journal of Conflict and Security Law, 17(2), 289-312. https://doi.org/10.1093/jcsl/krs014
11. Assefa, T. (2010). The role of peace forums in promoting inter-ethnic understanding in Ethiopia: A case study of the Gambella region. Journal of Peace Education, 7(2), 183-198. https://doi.org/10.1080/17400201.2010.488361
12. Assefa, T., & Yigzaw, Y. (2020). The importance of peace education in conflict transformation and the role of peace clubs in promoting peace education among young people in Ethiopia.
13. Ayalew, G. (2019). Reconsidering the impact of ethnic federalism on ethno-nationalist conflict in Ethiopia. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 13(4), 788-810. https://doi.org/10.1080/17531055.2019.1665628
14. Beriša, H., Cvetković, V., & Pavić, A. (2024). Implications of Artificial Intelligence and Cyberspace on Risk Management Capabilities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 6(2), 279-295.
15. Berrebi, C., & Klor, E. F. (2018). Early warning of political violence: A global analysis. American Political Science Review, 112(2), 434-454. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000081
16. Borgatti, S. P., Mehra, A., Brass, D. J., & Labianca, G. (2009). Network analysis in the social sciences. Science, 323(5916), 892-895. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1165821
17. Boulding, E. (1982). Conflict and defense: A general theory. Transaction Publishers.
18. Cammaert, P. (2018). The role of a UN field mission in conflict prevention and resolution. International Peacekeeping, 25(5), 683-704.
19. Cederman, L.-E., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2016). The capabilities of ethnic groups: A new measure and its implications. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(2), 350-385. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714524656
20. Chakma, S. (2023). Water Crisis in the Rangamati Hill District of Bangladesh: A Case Study on Indigenous Community. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 5(2), 29-44.
21. Checkland, P. (1999). Systems thinking, systems practice. John Wiley & Sons.
22. Creswell, J. W. (2014). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches (4th ed.). Sage Publications.
23. Creswell, J. W., & Plano Clark, V. L. (2018). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (3rd ed.). Sage Publications.
24. Croicu, M., & Sundberg, R. (2017). Predicting conflict escalation: A systematic review of the empirical literature. Journal of Peace Research, 54(2), 175-192. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316681398
25. Cvetković, V. (2023). A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience based on Social Identity Influences (MODERSI). International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 5(2), 57-80.
26. Cvetković, V., & Janković, B. (2020). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(1), 23-33.
27. De Coning, C. (2016). Introduction to peace and conflict studies. Routledge.
28. De Waal, A. (2022). New wars in Africa: The challenges of governance and peacebuilding. Review of African Political Economy, 49(173), 1-15.
29. Degefu, D. (2017). Conflict early warning and response systems in Ethiopia: A case study of the Amhara region. International Journal of Peace Studies, 22(2), 21-42.
30. Dejene, A. (2013). The effectiveness of peace committees in conflict resolution: A comparative study of Ethiopia and Kenya. Journal of Peace Research, 50(2), 191-204. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312463857
31. Dejene, A. (2014). Peacebuilding in Ethiopia: A critical analysis. International Peacekeeping, 21(2), 221-238. https://doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2014.903336
32. Dessalegn, R. (2003). Ethnicity and the federal system in Ethiopia: A reassessment. African Affairs, 102(408), 465-488.
33. Donham, D. L. (1999). Marxist modernism and post-Cold War ethnicity in Ethiopia. American Ethnologist, 26(4), 965-985.
34. Early Warning Working Group. (2014). Early warning indicators and triggers: A guide to their identification, analysis and use. https://earlywarningworkinggroup.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Early-Warning-Indicators-and-Triggers.pdf
35. Eshete, A. (2005). Ethnicity and federalism in Ethiopia. In D. Turton (Ed.), Ethnic federalism: The Ethiopian experience in comparative perspective (pp. 101-126). LIT Verlag.
36. Eshete, A. (2009). The role of interreligious councils in promoting interfaith dialogue and conflict resolution in Ethiopia: A case study of the Addis Ababa Interfaith Council. Journal of Interreligious Studies, 30(3-4), 245-262. https://doi.org/10.1080/15563700903083650
37. Esteban, M., & Mayoral, L. (2017). Social network analysis and ethnic conflict: A review and research agenda. Political Geography, 59, 76-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.03.002
38. Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2018). Group fractionalization and ethnic war: A critical reassessment. World Politics, 70(2), 382-425. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887118000039
39. Feyissa, D., & Hagmann, T. (2014). Ethiopians voting: Ethno-regional federalism and the influence of the rural vote. Africa Spectrum, 49(2), 115-129.
40. Galtung, J. (1964). An editorial. Journal of Peace Research, 1(1), 1-3. https://doi.org/10.1177/002234336400100101
41. Gebre, A. (2014). Conflict dynamics in the Somali region of Ethiopia: A community-based perspective. African Conflict and Peacebuilding Review, 4(2), 45-68.
42. Gebre, S. (2014). The effectiveness of field monitors in conflict monitoring and early warning in Ethiopia: A case study of the Somali region. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 8(2), 245-261. https://doi.org/10.1080/17531055.2014.918275
43. Gebru, T. (2009). Ethnicity and federalism in Ethiopia: A critical assessment. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 27(1), 105-125.
44. Graham, T., & Poorthuis, A. (2013). Big data: A new tool for conflict analysis, management, and resolution? The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 649(1), 203-216. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716213486233
45. Hegre, H., & Sambanis, N. (2006). Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(4), 508-535. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706287474
46. Herman, J. L. (2015). Trauma and recovery (4th ed.). Basic Books.
47. Jost, J. T., & Hunyady, O. (2005). The social information processing model of intergroup relations: Theoretical and empirical perspectives. Political Psychology, 26(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2005.00400.x
48. Kalyvas, S. N., & Kocher, M. A. (2017). Civil war: Causes, consequences, and solutions. Cambridge University Press.
49. Kebede, A. (2019). The role of peace committees in managing inter-ethnic conflict in Ethiopia. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 14(2), 185-202. https://doi.org/10.1080/15423166.2019.1603331
50. Kebede, G. (2011). The effectiveness of interreligious councils in promoting peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia: A case study of the Oromiya region. Journal of Ecumenical Studies, 48(2), 289-304.
51. KhosraviNik, M., KhosraviNik, S., & Van den Berg, H. (2016). Constructing narratives of conflict: A comparative analysis of media discourse on the Iranian nuclear program. Conflict & Communication Online, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.7551/cco.v15i3.713
52. King, G., Pan, J., & Roberts, M. E. (2013). How to make big data analysis in political science more scientific. PS: Political Science & Politics, 46(1), 144-151. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096513000050
53. Krempel, L., & Plumper, T. (2016). Network effects in civil war. Journal of Peace Research, 53(3), 410-425. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343315616392
54. Krippendorff, K. (2018). Content analysis: An introduction to its methodology (4th ed.). Sage Publications.
55. Leetaru, K. H. (2013). Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting large-scale human behavior using global news media tone in time and space. First Monday, 18(5). https://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/4541/3632
56. Lefort, R. (2019). Peacebuilding from below: Civil society and conflict resolution in Ethiopia. International Peacekeeping, 26(2), 231-250. https://doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2019.1604399
57. Luck, M., Vuolo, F., & Beuchle, R. (2013). A review of potential applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the context of integrated natural resource management. Drones, 1(1), 25-46. https://doi.org/10.3390/drones1010025
58. McEvoy-Levy, S. (2018). The importance of community engagement in conflict monitoring systems. International Journal of Peace Studies, 23(1), 1-15.
59. Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in systems: A primer. Chelsea Green Publishing.
60. Megersa, B., & Beyene, A. (2018). Early warning and early response to conflict in Ethiopia: Assessment and recommendations. International Journal of Conflict and Violence, 12(2), 203-222.
61. Mekonnen, T. (2004). Ethnic federalism and conflict management in Ethiopia: A case study of the Oromiya region. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 353-370.
62. Mekonnen, T. (2008). The role of peace committees in promoting peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia: A case study of the Amhara region. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 2(2), 267-285. https://doi.org/10.1080/17531050802188595
63. Mesfin, W. M. (2009). The Ethiopian federal system: Accommodating diversity and managing conflict. Nordic Journal of African Studies, 18(2), 147-168.
64. Miall, H., Ramsbotham, O., & Woodhouse, T. (2005). Contemporary conflict resolution. Polity Press.
65. Murshed, S. M., & Gates, S. (2017). Predicting violence in the Arab Spring: Evidence from Syria. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(10), 2195-2224. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716670990
66. Pausewang, S. (2003). The Ethiopian federal system: A challenge for state-building. African Affairs, 102(408), 489-510.
67. Raleigh, C., & Dowd, R. M. (2018). State fragility and conflict. Annual Review of Political Science, 21, 21-41. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042517-123911
68. Reason, P., & Bradbury, H. (2001). Handbook of action research: Participative inquiry and practice. Sage.
69. Richardson, K. (2011). Building the peace: Sustainable reconciliation in divided societies. Polity Press.
70. Salancik, G. R., & Pfeffer, J. (1978). A social information processing approach to job attitudes and task design. Administrative Science Quarterly, 23(2), 224-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392402
71. Straus, S. M. (2017). Predicting inter-ethnic conflict: A critical review of the literature. Journal of Peace Research, 54(1), 4-20. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316656211
72. Teshome, G. (2012). The effectiveness of peace clubs in promoting youth participation in conflict resolution in Ethiopia: A case study of the Oromiya region. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 41(7), 910-922. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-011-9735-5
73. Tronvoll, K. (2013). Local peace committees and conflict management in Ethiopia: The case of the Somali Region. African Affairs, 112(446), 113-134. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adt010
74. Ugarte, M. D., Militino, A. F., & Armentano, R. G. (2015). Time series analysis of political conflict in Colombia: 1948–2013. Social Science Research, 50, 324-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2014.10.003
75. Valente, T. W. (2012). Network interventions. Science, 337(6090), 49-53. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1217374
76. Ward, M. D., Greenhill, D., & Bakke, K. M. (2017). Spatial analysis methods for conflict early warning, monitoring, and mitigation. In Conflict early warning systems: Theory and practice (pp. 155-178). Routledge.
77. Wolde, G. (2016). The role of field monitors in promoting peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia: A case study of the Oromiya region. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 11(2), 123-140. https://doi.org/10.1080/15423166.2016.1178535
78. Yigezu, B. (2013). The role of interreligious councils in fostering interfaith harmony in Ethiopia: A case study of the Amhara region. Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, 33(2), 205-220. https://doi.org/10.1080/13602004.2013.823652
79. Yimer, A. (2014). The role of peace clubs in fostering inter-religious harmony in Ethiopia: A case study of the Amhara region. Intercultural Communication Studies, 23(2), 125-140. https://doi.org/10.1080/14708471.2014.915610
80. Young, J. (1993). The ethnic dimension in the disintegration of states. In T. D. Sisk (Ed.), Power and the state in Africa (pp. 11-31). University of California Press.
81. Zhang, X., & Wu, X. (2013). Large-scale sensor network deployment: A game-theoretic approach. IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computing, 12(12), 2444-2457. https://doi.org/10.1109/TMC.2013.135.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 International Journal of Disaster Risk Management
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
This journal operates under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction, adaptation, and transformation in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
Authors retain the copyright of their articles.
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) encourages and permits authors to:
-
Post pre-print (submitted version), post-print (accepted version), and publisher’s version/PDF of their articles on personal websites, institutional repositories, disciplinary repositories, and academic networks such as ResearchGate, Academia.edu, or departmental websites,
-
Do so at any time, including before or after publication,
-
Provided that appropriate credit is given to the original publication in this journal, including:
-
Full bibliographic details
-
A clear mention of the journal name
-
A direct link to the article’s DOI (as an HTML link)
-
No prior permission is required from the publisher or editors for such actions, as long as the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license are followed.
