Declination of the Strategic Compass: Transatlantic Elites, German Leadership, and the Future of European Security

Abstract

The appointment of Friedrich Merz as Germany’s new Chancellor, following an unusual repeat vote, marked a significant shift in German and broader European political dynamics. This paper examines the enduring influence of transatlantic networks, notably the Atlantic Bridge (Atlantik-Brücke), on Germany’s strategic orientation within the evolving European security architecture. Through comparative and analytical-deductive methods, the study explores how elite transnational structures, shaped by economic and ideological power centres, influence the implementation and limitations of the European Union’s Strategic Compass for Security and Defence. The paper argues that this strategic framework, conceived as a response to contemporary crises such as the war in Ukraine, may be increasingly subject to “declinations” driven by competing geopolitical interests and internal legitimacy challenges within EU member states. By tracing the personal and institutional ties of key actors, including Chancellor Merz, the paper sheds light on the deeper geopolitical alignments that underpin NATO-EU cooperation and transatlantic risk governance. The findings highlight the urgent need for a more balanced and citizen-oriented security strategy if lasting peace and stability are to be achieved in Europe.